Another Thought On Climate Change

Charlottesville

August 10, 2025

I run across a number of people who think climate change is probably true (follow the science) but since the climate models are not accurate, we don’t know the implications of warming and therefore don’t need to do anything now.

As I thought about that perspective, I realized the appropriate followup question is “So when do we do something?” And of course, “what’s the science behind that?”

There are plenty of things that we can’t model accurately yet we don’t sit on the sidelines.

In engineering, many times you know it’s more practical to add safety margins than to spend the resources and time to calculate to 30 decimal places (I exaggerate). (Obviously not true to lots of things we send up into space.)

Here’s what Google tells me about the accuracy of climate models:

Climate models have generally been accurate in projecting long-term global warming trends, but they still face challenges in simulating regional details and short-term extreme events. While some models might overestimate or underestimate warming in specific areas, overall, they have shown a good track record in capturing the broad patterns of climate change.

Here's a more detailed look:

Strengths of Climate Models:

Global Temperature Trends:

Most climate models have accurately predicted the overall warming trend of the planet. Studies have shown that many models published over the past few decades have closely matched observed global surface temperatures, especially when considering factors like CO2 concentration and other climate forcings.

Long-term Projections:

Climate models are designed to simulate long-term climate trends, and in that regard, they have generally been successful.

Ensemble Approach:

Scientists often use ensembles of models, which combine results from multiple models to create a more robust and reliable projection.

Challenges and Limitations:

Regional Variability:

Models struggle to accurately represent regional climate patterns and the specific impacts of climate change in different locations.

Short-term Events:

Climate models are not designed for accurate weather forecasting and can struggle to predict short-term events like extreme heat waves or precipitation.

Cloud Behavior:

Accurately modeling cloud systems and their impact on radiative forcing remains a challenge for climate models.

Computational Limits:

Increasing the resolution of climate models to capture finer details requires significant computational power.

Underestimation of Risk:

Some recent research suggests that climate models may be underestimating the severity and speed of certain climate change impacts, particularly in specific regions.

In essence, climate models are valuable tools for understanding and projecting climate change, but they are not perfect. They have proven useful for capturing the broad trends of global warming, but they require ongoing refinement and improvement to address the complexities of regional impacts and short-term events