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Betting On The Presidential Race


Purcellville, Virginia (still)

September 18, 2020

Always fun to see where the money is going with bookies. Here’s an article from Bookies.com:


The 2020 U.S. Presidential race is in full boil, with odds shifting on a daily basis. Even though political betting is not offered at any legal or regulated sportsbook in the United States, the European counterparts to US sportsbooks have robust betting markets. While many factors go into those odds — including if big bets have come in — they are also a good indicator of where things stand. Bookies.com takes a look at today's state of the race.


2020 Presidential Election Odds

Joe Biden-115


Donald Trump-106


Today's Takeaways

Traveling Trump

General election odds held steady overnight. Trump remains a -106 underdog and Biden is a -115 favorite.


Trump is hitting the road more frequently these days as the reelection campaign swings into full gear. He’s set for a 9 p.m. rally tonight in Wisconsin and calling it a “Great American Comeback Event.” He also held a lengthy briefing Wednesday night and expressed nothing but optimism over a forthcoming coronavirus vaccine.


Trump also contradicted his director of the Centers for Disease Control, Robert Redfield, who testified in front of Congress on Wednesday.


Redfield said a potential vaccine could be widely available by the second or third quarter of 2021 and that masks might actually offer more protection from coronavirus than a vaccine initially.


Hours later, Trump claimed Redfield was confused by the line of questioning and didn’t mean what he said. Asked why he doesn’t wear a mask more often to set a good example, Trump said he’s tested all the time and doesn’t get too close to all the people at his campaign events.


So, to sum up: the CDC director says a vaccine could be ready for widespread distribution to the general public in about seven or eight months, while Trump is saying seven to eight weeks. We’ll see if his continued optimism helps or hurts his chances with political oddsmakers in the coming weeks.


Biden Speaks

Biden is hanging on as a -115 favorite and continues to see promising numbers from national polls and swing-state betting odds. He’s starting to ramp up the direct attacks and engaging more often on Trump’s home turf of Twitter.com.


The former vice president has a big night on deck with a town hall event in his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania. It’s another chance to differentiate himself from the president – Trump held his own town hall Tuesday and answered questions from undecided voters, at least one of whom will now vote for Biden after a disappointing personal exchange with Trump.


Town halls are all about striking the right tone, addressing participants’ concerns without sounding too defensive. Biden has more experience in that department and could potentially use the opportunity to increase his lead in the polls and at the betting shops.


Upcoming: First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate is coming up Sep. 27 in Cleveland. It will be moderated by Fox News’ Chris Wallace and seemingly follow a traditional format after some buzz about potential curveballs like live fact-checkers.

Trump has a series of appearances lined up today, beginning with remarks at the White House Conference on American History from the National Archives Museum. He’s also flying out for a 9 p.m. speech/rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin.

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